The race to revolutionise travel
When the Propensity to Cycle Tool was first featured in the Further Together in 2022, it was already shaping transport policy. The project began in 2015 and has grown into something much bigger.
Since then, the work has been extended to provide vital evidence for sustainable transport planning beyond Leeds and the UK, with a clear focus on internationalising the research.
University of Leeds has some of the UK’s, if not the world’s, leading researchers in transport decarbonisation. It’s a big, complicated problem, which makes it ideal for research.
– Professor Robin Lovelace
Read the original research storyImpact
- Innovative use of data: created an open-source tool to map cycle routes across the country
- Civic engagement: collaborated with the Department for Transport to improve cycling routes
Key information
- Major funders: Department for Transport
- Partners and collaborators: University of Cambridge, University of Westminster, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
- Disciplines: environment, transport, data
- Investigators: Dr Robin Lovelace, Dr Malcolm Morgan
Focusing on the “carrots”
Decarbonising transport often involves difficult trade‑offs. There is a need to rethink demand for long distance travel if we are serious about sustainable transport, given how energy‑intensive transport systems are. 'Sticks’ such as road pricing may be needed to deter excess driving, but this research takes a different perspective.
“My research is more focused on the carrots – the good stuff,” says Professor Lovelace.
Rather than focusing on restrictions, Professor Lovelace’s research asks what can be offered instead of long car trips: better walking and cycling infrastructure, and environments that make active travel more appealing, encouraging ‘destination switching’ so people visit more local destinations.
Your kids are going to be able to get to school happier, healthier, and more focused because they’ve got a safe route to walk or cycle.
This sentiment mirrors the Government's recently released cycling and walking investment strategy.
Extending the work internationally
The research has progressed since 2022 by enhancing the methods, adding new features, and expanding its geographical reach. Professor Lovelace has worked with Transport Infrastructure Ireland, leading to the development of the Cycle Route Uptake and Scenario Estimation (CRUISE) tool, now used by planners in the Republic of Ireland.
A similar approach has been taken in Portugal in a project funded by the regional government in Lisbon. Professor Lovelace was hired as a consultant to provide his expertise, resulting in the biclaR tool, which is now used by 18 municipalities serving 2.9 million people, to plan strategic cycle networks across the region. BiclaR extends the PCT by modelling multi-modal trips, those made by cycling in combination with public transport.
Professor Lovelace is also part of a team developing a next-generation strategic cycle network planning tool to identify where bike infrastructure is most urgently needed across Scotland. The resulting Network Planning Tool and Network Planning Workspace, delivered in collaboration with the Walk Wheel Cycle Trust and startup A/B Street are publicly available at npt.scot.
The project represents a major step forward by enabling users to not only view data on cycling potential but to edit the network and estimate the impacts of specific changes, as shown in the figure below.
Work in Northern Ireland means tools now cover the entire British Isles, with additional projects in Norway and New Zealand further demonstrating how the research is spreading.
It’s fun to see your work in a different language. We’ve had greater geographical reach, and that’s something I want to continue.
Building new methods and features
Alongside this expansion, Professor Lovelace and the research team have developed new methods and features tailored to different contexts.
The original Propensity to Cycle Tool relied on commuting data. However, post‑pandemic travel patterns have changed, so the research has expanded beyond commuting.
New models now look at all trip purposes, including travel to school, shopping, social visits, and leisure journeys.
Shaping planning and investment
In England, more than 95% of local authorities have used the Propensity to Cycle Tool to develop Local Cycling and Walking Infrastructure Plans, helping to create more joined‑up cycle networks. The tool has also influenced how funding is allocated.
“More than £100 million of funding has been spent more effectively as a result of the tool,” explains Professor Lovelace.
There is clear evidence that it has shaped real infrastructure decisions, although it is difficult to quantify exactly how many people are cycling as a result.
Open access and wider impact
Open access has been a key part of the project from the beginning.
“It was the first publicly available web application funded by the Department for Transport. It’s been a bit of a trailblazer,” reflects Professor Lovelace.
This approach has influenced how the government commissions new tools, creating a precedent for openness. The tool and the underlying code are open source, allowing others to build on it.
The open model has also led to new collaborations, with researchers and developers from around the world engaging directly, often through platforms like GitHub.
“I’ve had many more contacts and people messaging me because they can actually have a look at it and see that it’s real,” says Professor Lovelace.
These connections have supported partnerships in countries such as Portugal and helped inspire further innovation.
Responding to a changing policy landscape
In the UK, a new government agency dedicated to promoting walking and cycling, Active Travel England, has commissioned Professor Lovelace to do research.
In recent years, there has been a shift towards road safety as a priority. Climate change mitigation is not a priority in the way that it used to be. With ongoing international conflicts, there is growing concern over energy security, so it has moved higher up the agenda. Many solutions often overlap with those for climate change mitigation, so reframing the issue in those terms may be useful.
There is value in combining “stick and carrot” measures and taking a broader view of the transport system across all modes.
Challenges along the way
One of the main challenges has been access to data. Professor Lovelace encountered this when developing the street space evaluation feature within the network planning tool for Scotland.
“There are data sets that show the shape of pavements, and from that you can derive pavement widths. We need this to understand whether a cycle lane could fit on a particular corridor. A huge challenge was that the data set was owned by Ordnance Survey and is proprietary,” explains Professor Lovelace.
The problem was solved by aggregating the data, providing it at a higher level and rounding widths to the nearest metre. After extensive discussions with Ordnance Survey, this is now a resolved issue in Scotland.
What success looks like
The ultimate key performance indicator is how many people see the benefits of regular exercise and reduced pollution from the uptake of active travel.
A more specific measure is how many people have access to these open tools.
Access to information on where sustainable transport infrastructure is needed is still limited. In the UK, there’s open data people can use, but in many countries, there’s little to show what’s possible.
What percentage of the world’s population has access to publicly available evidence showing the potential for growth in active travel on their local streets to inform investment decisions?
Thanks to the Propensity to Cycle Tool and follow-on work in the UK, parts of Portugal, Scotland, and the Republic of Ireland, it might be around 3% of the world’s population.
Could we increase that to 5%, 10%, or even 100%? Professor Lovelace believes so and will work to help make it happen.